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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 21-5 (80.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 8-3 (72.7%) · S 1-1 (50.0%) · A 27-11 (71.1%) · B 217-111 (66.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK = pitcher form + boost (~48% XBH). ELITE = base filter (~45% XBH).

XBH Record
41-65 39%
2+ TB Record
47-59 44%
Graded
106 picks L1
← PREV 2026-04-22 NEXT →
Last scored 05:49 PM ET
LOCK Picks — 2026-04-22 Pitcher form + boost
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell 6:45 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Zack Littell has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
Ramón Laureano
RL
SD SD vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 8:40 PM ET park temp
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Laureano's slugging 0.484 on the year with .226 isolated power — the extra-base hits are real. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 80°F game-time temp.
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Tanner Bibee 1:10 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Tanner Bibee has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell 6:45 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Zack Littell has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs BAL BAL vs Chris Bassitt 2:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Chris Bassitt on the mound today.
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs LAA LAA vs José Soriano 3:07 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Varsho is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .310 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Faces José Soriano on the mound today.
Zach Neto
ZN
Zach Neto LOCK
LAA LAA vs TOR TOR vs Eric Lauer 3:07 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Neto is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .282 ISO with 107 mph max exit velo. Faces Eric Lauer on the mound today.
ELITE Picks
Base filter — elevated power profile + pitcher matchup
Elly De La Cruz
EC
CIN CIN vs TB TB vs Nick Martinez 1:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
59%
Awaiting lines
With a .243 ISO, Cruz has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Nick Martinez on the mound today.
Ben Rice
BR
Ben Rice ELITE
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Ranger Suarez 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
59%
Awaiting lines
Rice brings legit pop — .244 ISO this season. Faces Ranger Suarez on the mound today.
Max Muncy
MM
Max Muncy ELITE
LAD LAD vs SF SF vs Tyler Mahle 9:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
52%
Awaiting lines
With a .227 ISO, Muncy has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Tyler Mahle on the mound today.
Freddie Freeman
FF
LAD LAD vs SF SF vs Tyler Mahle 9:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
49%
Awaiting lines
Freeman brings legit pop — .237 ISO this season. Faces Tyler Mahle on the mound today.
Munetaka Murakami
MM
CWS CWS vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez 9:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
47%
Awaiting lines
Murakami is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .387 ISO with 114 mph max exit velo. Faces Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound today.
Oneil Cruz
OC
Oneil Cruz ELITE
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter 8:05 PM ET
XBH Prob
47%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Cruz: .343 ISO and a 119 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Jack Leiter on the mound today.
Wilyer Abreu
WA
Wilyer Abreu ELITE
BOS BOS vs NYY NYY vs Max Fried 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Faces Max Fried on the mound today.
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz ELITE
ATH vs SEA SEA vs Logan Gilbert 4:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Faces Logan Gilbert on the mound today.
James Wood
JW
James Wood ELITE
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
With a .225 ISO and 116 mph max exit velocity, Wood has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Martín Pérez on the mound today.
Christian Walker
CW
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Tanner Bibee 1:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .325 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Tanner Bibee has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage.
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs SEA SEA vs Logan Gilbert 4:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Langeliers: .416 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Logan Gilbert has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts.
Ian Happ
IH
Ian Happ ELITE
CHC CHC vs PHI PHI vs Kyle Backhus 7:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Happ is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .352 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Faces Kyle Backhus on the mound today.
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams ELITE
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Faces Martín Pérez on the mound today.
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs CHC CHC vs Matthew Boyd 7:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Schwarber: .343 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Matthew Boyd on the mound today.
Brandon Lowe
BL
Brandon Lowe ELITE
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter 8:05 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Lowe: .366 ISO and a 108 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Jack Leiter on the mound today.
Sal Stewart
SS
Sal Stewart ELITE
CIN CIN vs TB TB vs Nick Martinez 1:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Nick Martinez on the mound today.
Cole Young
CY
Cole Young ELITE
SEA SEA vs ATH vs Aaron Civale 4:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Young: .278 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Aaron Civale on the mound today.
Andy Pages
AP
Andy Pages ELITE
LAD LAD vs SF SF vs Tyler Mahle 9:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 109 mph max exit velo. Faces Tyler Mahle on the mound today.
Luis García Jr.
LJ
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
With a .235 ISO and 111 mph max exit velocity, Jr. has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Martín Pérez on the mound today.
Ryan O'Hearn
RO
Ryan O'Hearn ELITE
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter 8:05 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from O'Hearn: .333 ISO and a 108 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Jack Leiter on the mound today.
Brice Matthews
BM
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Tanner Bibee 1:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Matthews is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .285 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Faces Tanner Bibee on the mound today.
Brice Turang
BT
Brice Turang ELITE
MIL MIL vs DET DET vs Casey Mize 6:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Turang's .273 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Faces Casey Mize on the mound today.
Jackson Merrill
JM
SD SD vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 8:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Merrill's slugging 0.469 on the year with .219 isolated power — the extra-base hits are real. Faces Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound today.
Jahmai Jones
JJ
Jahmai Jones ELITE
DET DET vs MIL MIL vs Chad Patrick 6:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jones: .263 ISO and a 110 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Chad Patrick on the mound today.
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler 8:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
With a .248 ISO and 109 mph max exit velocity, Moniak has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Walker Buehler on the mound today.
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-04-21 — STL STL vs MIA MIA
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers
2026-04-21 — ATH vs SEA SEA
HR
5 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-04-21 — HOU HOU vs CLE CLE
2B
3 TB
✗
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
2026-04-21 — MIL MIL vs DET DET
No XBH
2 TB
✓
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
2026-04-21 — CIN CIN vs TB TB
HR
9 TB
✗
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
2026-04-21 — NYY NYY vs BOS BOS
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz
2026-04-21 — ATH vs SEA SEA
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-04-21 — ATL ATL vs WSH WSH
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-04-21 — LAD LAD vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ramón Laureano
Ramón Laureano
2026-04-21 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-04-20 — STL STL vs MIA MIA
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-04-20 — ATL ATL vs WSH WSH
HR
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-04-20 — HOU HOU vs CLE CLE
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers
2026-04-20 — ATH vs SEA SEA
HR
4 TB
✓
Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz
2026-04-20 — ATH vs SEA SEA
HR
4 TB
✗
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
2026-04-20 — CIN CIN vs TB TB
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-04-19 — STL STL vs HOU HOU
2B
2 TB
✗
Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers
2026-04-19 — ATH vs CWS CWS
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-04-19 — HOU HOU vs STL STL
HR
4 TB
✓
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
2026-04-19 — CIN CIN vs MIN MIN
2B
2 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
39-157 (20%)
ELITE
11-45 (20%)
Ramón Laureano
RL
SD SD vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Didier Fuentes pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RJ
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs ATH vs Aaron Civale platoon
HR prob
27%
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp platoon
HR prob
27%
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp
HR prob
27%
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez
HR prob
27%
Taylor Ward
TW
Taylor Ward ELITE
BAL BAL vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha
HR prob
24%
Pete Alonso
PA
Pete Alonso ELITE
BAL BAL vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha
HR prob
24%
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs ATH vs Aaron Civale
HR prob
21%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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