LOCK LABS — Power Plays

BTS Single 25-6 (80.6%) · Streak: 2 · Parlay: 9-4 (69.2%) · S 1-1 (50.0%) · A 32-13 (71.1%) · B 257-122 (67.8%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record

7-4 64%

2+ TB Record

7-4 64%

Graded

11 picks L1

← PREV 2026-04-24 NEXT →

Last scored 04:00 PM ET

Ian Happ LOCK

CHC vs LAD

LAD vs Emmet Sheehan 10:15 PM ET platoon confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Happ is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .352 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Emmet Sheehan has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.

Yordan Alvarez LOCK

HOU vs NYY

NYY vs Will Warren 8:10 PM ET platoon confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Will Warren's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.

Zach Neto LOCK

LAA vs

KC vs Noah Cameron 7:40 PM ET platoon park confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Neto is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .282 ISO with 107 mph max exit velo. Noah Cameron has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.05x.

Cole Young LOCK

SEA vs STL

STL vs Andre Pallante 8:15 PM ET platoon confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Elite power numbers from Young: .278 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Andre Pallante has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.

Munetaka Murakami LOCK

CWS vs WSH

WSH vs Miles Mikolas 7:40 PM ET platoon confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Murakami is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .387 ISO with 114 mph max exit velo. Miles Mikolas's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB

45-172 (21%)

ELITE

13-47 (22%)

Shohei Ohtani BOMB

LAD vs CHC

CHC vs Jameson Taillon pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

Trent Grisham BOMB

NYY vs HOU

HOU vs Lance McCullers Jr. pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

Juan Soto BOMB

NYM vs COL

COL vs Michael Lorenzen pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✗ No HR

Jazz Chisholm Jr. BOMB

NYY vs HOU

HOU vs Lance McCullers Jr. pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

Giancarlo Stanton BOMB

NYY vs HOU

HOU vs Lance McCullers Jr. pitcher_form

HR prob

28%

Aaron Judge BOMB

NYY vs HOU

HOU vs Lance McCullers Jr. pitcher_form

HR prob

28%

Colson Montgomery BOMB

CWS vs WSH

WSH vs Miles Mikolas platoon

HR prob

27%

Max Muncy BOMB

LAD vs CHC

CHC vs Jameson Taillon pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

Jorge Polanco BOMB

NYM vs COL

COL vs Michael Lorenzen pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

Rafael Devers BOMB

SF vs

MIA vs Sandy Alcantara pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

Kyle Manzardo BOMB

CLE vs TOR

TOR vs Max Scherzer pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

✗ No HR

David Fry BOMB

CLE vs TOR

TOR vs Max Scherzer pitcher_form

HR prob

25%

Wilyer Abreu BOMB

BOS vs BAL

BAL vs Brandon Young platoon

HR prob

24%

✓ HOME RUN!

Salvador Perez BOMB

KC vs

LAA vs Yusei Kikuchi pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

23%

José Ramírez BOMB

CLE vs TOR

TOR vs Max Scherzer pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

23%

✗ No HR

Cody Bellinger BOMB

NYY vs HOU

HOU vs Lance McCullers Jr. pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

23%

Austin Wells BOMB

NYY vs HOU

HOU vs Lance McCullers Jr. pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

23%

Ben Rice BOMB

NYY vs HOU

HOU vs Lance McCullers Jr. pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

23%

Willy Adames BOMB

SF vs

MIA vs Sandy Alcantara pitcher_form

HR prob

22%

Vinnie Pasquantino BOMB

KC vs

LAA vs Yusei Kikuchi pitcher_form

HR prob

22%

Carter Jensen BOMB

KC vs

LAA vs Yusei Kikuchi pitcher_form

HR prob

22%

Isaac Paredes ELITE

HOU vs NYY

NYY vs Will Warren

HR prob

21%

How picks are filtered

2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.

HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.

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