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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 164-73 (69.2%) · B 1705-896 (65.6%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
211-398 35%
2+ TB Record
265-344 44%
Graded
609 picks L1
← PREV 2026-05-01 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs COL COL vs Jose Quintana 8:40 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Jose Quintana has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.19x.
✓ HR 4 TB
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs CLE CLE vs Joey Cantillo 9:40 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Langeliers: .416 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Joey Cantillo's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.23x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs HOU HOU vs Mike Burrows 7:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Mike Burrows has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Andy Pages
AP
Andy Pages LOCK
LAD LAD vs STL STL vs Matthew Liberatore 8:15 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 109 mph max exit velo. Matthew Liberatore's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs COL COL vs Jose Quintana 8:40 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Jose Quintana has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.19x.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz LOCK
ATH vs CLE CLE vs Joey Cantillo 9:40 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Joey Cantillo's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.23x.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Chase DeLauter
CD
CLE CLE vs ATH vs J.T. Ginn 9:40 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from DeLauter: .468 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. J.T. Ginn has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.23x.
✓ XBH 6 TB
Munetaka Murakami
MM
CWS CWS vs SD SD vs Germán Márquez 9:40 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Murakami is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .387 ISO with 114 mph max exit velo. Germán Márquez's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 4 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-24 — AZ AZ vs WSH WSH
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
3B
3 TB
✓
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
2B
4 TB
✓
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-07-24 — PHI PHI vs NYY NYY
2B
2 TB
✓
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
2B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-23 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-23 — AZ AZ vs STL STL
3B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-22 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-22 — LAD LAD vs PHI PHI
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-07-22 — LAA LAA vs STL STL
2B
2 TB
✓
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-07-22 — SD SD vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB
✗
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-07-21 — KC KC vs SF SF
HR
4 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-07-21 — SEA SEA vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
246-989 (20%)
ELITE
40-192 (17%)
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RJ
ATL ATL vs COL COL vs Jose Quintana pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Byron Buxton
BB
MIN MIN vs TOR TOR vs Patrick Corbin platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs SD SD vs Germán Márquez platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs HOU HOU vs Mike Burrows pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Will Benson
WB
CIN CIN vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Matt Wallner
MW
Matt Wallner ELITE
MIN MIN vs TOR TOR vs Patrick Corbin
HR prob
27%
Gary Sánchez
GS
MIL MIL vs WSH WSH vs Jake Irvin
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Taylor Ward
TW
Taylor Ward ELITE
BAL BAL vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
Pete Alonso ELITE
BAL BAL vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Tyler O'Neill
TO
BAL BAL vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
21%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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