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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 164-73 (69.2%) · B 1705-896 (65.6%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
211-398 35%
2+ TB Record
265-344 44%
Graded
609 picks L1
← PREV 2026-06-07 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs PIT PIT vs Bubba Chandler 1:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Bubba Chandler has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 78°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
William Contreras
WC
MIL MIL vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland 3:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .233 ISO and 112 mph max exit velocity, Contreras has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Kyle Freeland has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 91°F game-time temp.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto LOCK
NYM NYM vs SD SD vs Randy Vásquez 4:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Soto's .262 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Randy Vásquez has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Brice Turang
BT
MIL MIL vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland 3:10 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Turang's .273 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Kyle Freeland has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 91°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs NYY NYY vs Cam Schlittler 1:35 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Cam Schlittler's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.06x, and 81°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz LOCK
ATH vs HOU HOU vs Mike Burrows 2:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Mike Burrows's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 4 TB
Cole Young
CY
Cole Young LOCK
SEA SEA vs DET DET vs Jack Flaherty 1:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Young: .278 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Jack Flaherty has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 80°F game-time temp.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Munetaka Murakami
MM
CWS CWS vs PHI PHI vs Aaron Nola 1:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Murakami is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .387 ISO with 114 mph max exit velo. Aaron Nola has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 85°F game-time temp.
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-24 — AZ AZ vs WSH WSH
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
3B
3 TB
✓
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
2B
4 TB
✓
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-07-24 — PHI PHI vs NYY NYY
2B
2 TB
✓
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
2B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-23 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-23 — AZ AZ vs STL STL
3B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-22 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-22 — LAD LAD vs PHI PHI
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-07-22 — LAA LAA vs STL STL
2B
2 TB
✓
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-07-22 — SD SD vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB
✗
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-07-21 — KC KC vs SF SF
HR
4 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-07-21 — SEA SEA vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
246-989 (20%)
ELITE
40-192 (17%)
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Gary Sánchez
GS
MIL MIL vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs SD SD vs Randy Vásquez pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz BOMB
ATH vs HOU HOU vs Mike Burrows pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Will Benson
WB
CIN CIN vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs CHC CHC vs Jameson Taillon pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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