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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 164-73 (69.2%) · B 1705-896 (65.6%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
211-398 35%
2+ TB Record
265-344 44%
Graded
609 picks L1
← PREV 2026-06-12 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto LOCK
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Spencer Strider 7:15 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Soto's .262 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Spencer Strider has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 85°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 5 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs KC KC vs Luinder Avila 8:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Luinder Avila has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.05x, and 82°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 9 TB
Jared Young
JY
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Spencer Strider 7:15 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Young: .302 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Spencer Strider has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 85°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Jack Leiter has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 79°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 8 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez 7:15 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Eduardo Rodriguez has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 81°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-24 — AZ AZ vs WSH WSH
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
3B
3 TB
✓
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
2B
4 TB
✓
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-07-24 — PHI PHI vs NYY NYY
2B
2 TB
✓
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
2B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-23 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-23 — AZ AZ vs STL STL
3B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-22 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-22 — LAD LAD vs PHI PHI
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-07-22 — LAA LAA vs STL STL
2B
2 TB
✓
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-07-22 — SD SD vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB
✗
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-07-21 — KC KC vs SF SF
HR
4 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-07-21 — SEA SEA vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
246-989 (20%)
ELITE
40-192 (17%)
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Spencer Strider temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✓ HOME RUN!
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs LAD LAD vs Roki Sasaki temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs MIA MIA vs Sandy Alcantara temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Junior Caminero
JC
TB TB vs LAA LAA vs Sam Aldegheri platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Taylor Ward
TW
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Griffin Canning temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Griffin Canning temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs SEA SEA vs Bryce Miller temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Tyler O'Neill
TO
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Griffin Canning temp
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell temp
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Rob Refsnyder
RR
SEA SEA vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell
HR prob
21%
Will Benson
WB
Will Benson ELITE
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez
HR prob
21%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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