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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-73 (63.5%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 11-8 (57.9%) · A 222-104 (68.1%) · B 2540-1347 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
311-634 33%
2+ TB Record
389-556 41%
Graded
945 picks L5
← PREV 2026-07-05 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Freddie Freeman
FF
LAD LAD vs SD SD vs JP Sears 7:20 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Freeman brings legit pop — .237 ISO and 110 mph max exit velocity this season. JP Sears's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 77°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs NYM NYM vs Nolan McLean 12:30 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Nolan McLean has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 89°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Andy Pages
AP
Andy Pages LOCK
LAD LAD vs SD SD vs JP Sears 7:20 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. JP Sears's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs PHI PHI vs Aaron Nola 3:00 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Aaron Nola has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 14% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.05x, and 87°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs BAL BAL vs Kyle Bradish 1:05 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Kyle Bradish's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 83°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
2026-09-20 — MIL MIL vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-20 — SEA SEA vs COL COL
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Kyle Stowers
Kyle Stowers
2026-09-20 — MIA MIA vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-20 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-20 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-20 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
331-1432 (19%)
ELITE
57-256 (18%)
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs COL COL vs Tanner Gordon temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✓ HOME RUN! 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani
SO
LAD LAD vs SD SD vs JP Sears temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs SEA SEA vs Emerson Hancock pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Kerry Carpenter
KC
DET DET vs TEX TEX vs Kumar Rocker pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Riley Greene
RG
DET DET vs TEX TEX vs Kumar Rocker pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Willy Adames
WA
SF SF vs COL COL vs Tanner Gordon temp pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
✗ No HR
Gary Sánchez
GS
MIL MIL vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Christian Yelich
CY
MIL MIL vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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