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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 22-6 (78.6%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 8-4 (66.7%) · S 1-1 (50.0%) · A 28-12 (70.0%) · B 232-117 (66.5%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK = pitcher form + boost (~48% XBH). ELITE = base filter (~45% XBH).

XBH Record
48-78 38%
2+ TB Record
54-72 43%
Graded
126 picks L2
← PREV 2026-04-22 NEXT →
Last scored 05:49 PM ET
LOCK Picks — 2026-04-22 Pitcher form + boost
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell 6:45 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Zack Littell has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 4 TB
Ramón Laureano
RL
SD SD vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 8:40 PM ET park temp
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Laureano's slugging 0.484 on the year with .226 isolated power — the extra-base hits are real. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 80°F game-time temp.
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Tanner Bibee 1:10 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Tanner Bibee has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 6 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell 6:45 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Zack Littell has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 5 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs BAL BAL vs Chris Bassitt 2:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Chris Bassitt on the mound today.
✓ HR 5 TB
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs LAA LAA vs José Soriano 3:07 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Varsho is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .310 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Faces José Soriano on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Zach Neto
ZN
Zach Neto LOCK
LAA LAA vs TOR TOR vs Eric Lauer 3:07 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Neto is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .282 ISO with 107 mph max exit velo. Faces Eric Lauer on the mound today.
✓ XBH 2 TB
ELITE Picks
Base filter — elevated power profile + pitcher matchup
Elly De La Cruz
EC
CIN CIN vs TB TB vs Nick Martinez 1:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
59%
Awaiting lines
With a .243 ISO, Cruz has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Nick Martinez on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Ben Rice
BR
Ben Rice ELITE
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Ranger Suarez 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
59%
Awaiting lines
Rice brings legit pop — .244 ISO this season. Faces Ranger Suarez on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Max Muncy
MM
Max Muncy ELITE
LAD LAD vs SF SF vs Tyler Mahle 9:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
52%
Awaiting lines
With a .227 ISO, Muncy has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Tyler Mahle on the mound today.
Freddie Freeman
FF
LAD LAD vs SF SF vs Tyler Mahle 9:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
49%
Awaiting lines
Freeman brings legit pop — .237 ISO this season. Faces Tyler Mahle on the mound today.
Munetaka Murakami
MM
CWS CWS vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez 9:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
47%
Awaiting lines
Murakami is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .387 ISO with 114 mph max exit velo. Faces Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound today.
Oneil Cruz
OC
Oneil Cruz ELITE
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter 8:05 PM ET
XBH Prob
47%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Cruz: .343 ISO and a 119 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Jack Leiter on the mound today.
Wilyer Abreu
WA
Wilyer Abreu ELITE
BOS BOS vs NYY NYY vs Max Fried 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Faces Max Fried on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz ELITE
ATH vs SEA SEA vs Logan Gilbert 4:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Faces Logan Gilbert on the mound today.
✓ HR 5 TB
James Wood
JW
James Wood ELITE
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
With a .225 ISO and 116 mph max exit velocity, Wood has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Martín Pérez on the mound today.
✓ HR 5 TB
Christian Walker
CW
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Tanner Bibee 1:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .325 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Tanner Bibee has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs SEA SEA vs Logan Gilbert 4:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Langeliers: .416 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Logan Gilbert has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Ian Happ
IH
Ian Happ ELITE
CHC CHC vs PHI PHI vs Kyle Backhus 7:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Happ is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .352 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Faces Kyle Backhus on the mound today.
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams ELITE
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Faces Martín Pérez on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs CHC CHC vs Matthew Boyd 7:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Schwarber: .343 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Matthew Boyd on the mound today.
Brandon Lowe
BL
Brandon Lowe ELITE
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter 8:05 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Lowe: .366 ISO and a 108 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Jack Leiter on the mound today.
Sal Stewart
SS
Sal Stewart ELITE
CIN CIN vs TB TB vs Nick Martinez 1:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Nick Martinez on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Cole Young
CY
Cole Young ELITE
SEA SEA vs ATH vs Aaron Civale 4:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Young: .278 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Aaron Civale on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Andy Pages
AP
Andy Pages ELITE
LAD LAD vs SF SF vs Tyler Mahle 9:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 109 mph max exit velo. Faces Tyler Mahle on the mound today.
Luis García Jr.
LJ
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez 6:45 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
With a .235 ISO and 111 mph max exit velocity, Jr. has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Martín Pérez on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Ryan O'Hearn
RO
Ryan O'Hearn ELITE
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter 8:05 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from O'Hearn: .333 ISO and a 108 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Jack Leiter on the mound today.
Brice Matthews
BM
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Tanner Bibee 1:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Matthews is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .285 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Faces Tanner Bibee on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Brice Turang
BT
Brice Turang ELITE
MIL MIL vs DET DET vs Casey Mize 6:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Turang's .273 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Faces Casey Mize on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Jackson Merrill
JM
SD SD vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 8:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Merrill's slugging 0.469 on the year with .219 isolated power — the extra-base hits are real. Faces Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound today.
Jahmai Jones
JJ
Jahmai Jones ELITE
DET DET vs MIL MIL vs Chad Patrick 6:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jones: .263 ISO and a 110 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Chad Patrick on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler 8:40 PM ET
XBH Prob
44%
Awaiting lines
With a .248 ISO and 109 mph max exit velocity, Moniak has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Faces Walker Buehler on the mound today.
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-04-22 — HOU HOU vs CLE CLE
HR
6 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-04-22 — ATL ATL vs WSH WSH
HR
5 TB
✓
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-04-22 — ATL ATL vs WSH WSH
HR
4 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-04-22 — KC KC vs BAL BAL
HR
5 TB
✗
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-04-22 — TOR TOR vs LAA LAA
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-04-22 — LAA LAA vs TOR TOR
2B
2 TB
✗
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
2026-04-22 — CIN CIN vs TB TB
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
2026-04-22 — NYY NYY vs BOS BOS
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
2026-04-22 — BOS BOS vs NYY NYY
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz
2026-04-22 — ATH vs SEA SEA
HR
5 TB
✓
James Wood
James Wood
2026-04-22 — WSH WSH vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB
✗
Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers
2026-04-22 — ATH vs SEA SEA
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-04-22 — HOU HOU vs CLE CLE
No XBH
1 TB
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-04-22 — WSH WSH vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-04-22 — CIN CIN vs TB TB
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-04-22 — SEA SEA vs ATH
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-04-22 — WSH WSH vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Brice Matthews
Brice Matthews
2026-04-22 — HOU HOU vs CLE CLE
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
2026-04-22 — MIL MIL vs DET DET
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones
2026-04-22 — DET DET vs MIL MIL
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
41-158 (21%)
ELITE
12-47 (20%)
Ramón Laureano
RL
SD SD vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Didier Fuentes pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RJ
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
✗ No HR
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs ATH vs Aaron Civale platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp platoon
HR prob
27%
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp
HR prob
27%
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez
HR prob
27%
Taylor Ward
TW
Taylor Ward ELITE
BAL BAL vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
Pete Alonso ELITE
BAL BAL vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs ATH vs Aaron Civale
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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