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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-73 (63.5%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 11-8 (57.9%) · A 222-104 (68.1%) · B 2540-1347 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
311-634 33%
2+ TB Record
389-556 41%
Graded
945 picks L5
← PREV 2026-05-16 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs PIT PIT vs Bubba Chandler 4:05 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Schwarber: .343 ISO and a 113 mph max exit velo this season. Bubba Chandler has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs TEX TEX vs Jacob deGrom 7:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Jacob deGrom has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 4 TB
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 3:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Carroll is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .343 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Tomoyuki Sugano's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 76°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Jordan Walker
JW
STL STL vs KC KC vs Noah Cameron 2:15 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .267 ISO and a 115 mph max exit velo this season. Noah Cameron has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 78°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Chase DeLauter
CD
CLE CLE vs CIN CIN vs Chris Paddack 6:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from DeLauter: .468 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Chris Paddack's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
2026-09-20 — MIL MIL vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-20 — SEA SEA vs COL COL
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Kyle Stowers
Kyle Stowers
2026-09-20 — MIA MIA vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-20 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-20 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-20 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
331-1432 (19%)
ELITE
57-256 (18%)
Ketel Marte
KM
AZ AZ vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Michael Busch
MB
CHC CHC vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs CHC CHC vs Jameson Taillon temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✓ HOME RUN!
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
José Ramírez
JR
CLE CLE vs CIN CIN vs Chris Paddack pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Kyle Manzardo
KM
CLE CLE vs CIN CIN vs Chris Paddack pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez temp
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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