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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 164-73 (69.2%) · B 1705-896 (65.6%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
211-398 35%
2+ TB Record
265-344 44%
Graded
609 picks L1
← PREV 2026-05-17 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Aaron Judge
AJ
NYY NYY vs NYM NYM vs Freddy Peralta 1:40 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Judge: .278 ISO and a 116 mph max exit velo this season. Freddy Peralta's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 85°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs BOS BOS vs Brayan Bello 1:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Brayan Bello has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 85°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Brice Turang
BT
MIL MIL vs MIN MIN vs Bailey Ober 2:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Turang's .273 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Bailey Ober has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs SF SF vs Adrian Houser 4:05 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Langeliers: .416 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Adrian Houser has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.23x.
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs COL COL vs Michael Lorenzen 3:10 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Carroll is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .343 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Michael Lorenzen has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.19x.
✓ HR 8 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs BOS BOS vs Brayan Bello 1:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Brayan Bello has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 85°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Zach Neto
ZN
Zach Neto LOCK
LAA LAA vs LAD LAD vs Roki Sasaki 4:07 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Neto is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .282 ISO with 107 mph max exit velo. Roki Sasaki has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.05x.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Jordan Walker
JW
STL STL vs KC KC vs Stephen Kolek 2:15 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .267 ISO and a 115 mph max exit velo this season. Stephen Kolek's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 82°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz LOCK
ATH vs SF SF vs Adrian Houser 4:05 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Adrian Houser has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.23x.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Chase DeLauter
CD
CLE CLE vs CIN CIN vs Brady Singer 1:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from DeLauter: .468 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Brady Singer has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 79°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 5 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-24 — AZ AZ vs WSH WSH
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
3B
3 TB
✓
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
2B
4 TB
✓
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-07-24 — PHI PHI vs NYY NYY
2B
2 TB
✓
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
2B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-23 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-23 — AZ AZ vs STL STL
3B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-22 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-22 — LAD LAD vs PHI PHI
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-07-22 — LAA LAA vs STL STL
2B
2 TB
✓
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-07-22 — SD SD vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB
✗
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-07-21 — KC KC vs SF SF
HR
4 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-07-21 — SEA SEA vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
246-989 (20%)
ELITE
40-192 (17%)
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Michael Busch
MB
CHC CHC vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✓ HOME RUN!
Taylor Ward
TW
BAL BAL vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas temp
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
BAL BAL vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas temp
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs SD SD vs Lucas Giolito platoon
HR prob
27%
Tyler O'Neill
TO
BAL BAL vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs COL COL vs Michael Lorenzen pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN! 2 HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs BAL BAL vs Brandon Young temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Christian Yelich
CY
MIL MIL vs MIN MIN vs Bailey Ober platoon
HR prob
21%
✓ HOME RUN!
Gary Sánchez
GS
MIL MIL vs MIN MIN vs Bailey Ober
HR prob
24%
Rob Refsnyder
RR
SEA SEA vs SD SD vs Lucas Giolito
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs SD SD vs Lucas Giolito
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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