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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-73 (63.5%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 11-8 (57.9%) · A 222-104 (68.1%) · B 2540-1347 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
311-634 33%
2+ TB Record
389-556 41%
Graded
945 picks L5
← PREV 2026-07-18 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs TEX TEX vs MacKenzie Gore 4:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. MacKenzie Gore has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from 89°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs TB TB vs Ian Seymour 4:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Ian Seymour's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 80°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 8 TB
Andy Pages
AP
Andy Pages LOCK
LAD LAD vs NYY NYY vs Ryan Weathers 8:08 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Ryan Weathers's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.06x.
Elly De La Cruz
EC
CIN CIN vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 3:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .243 ISO and 116 mph max exit velocity, Cruz has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 89°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 3 TB
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams LOCK
WSH WSH vs ATH vs J.T. Ginn 10:05 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. J.T. Ginn's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.23x.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs TEX TEX vs MacKenzie Gore 4:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 113 mph max exit velo. MacKenzie Gore has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from 89°F game-time temp.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 3:10 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 89°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
2026-09-20 — MIL MIL vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-20 — SEA SEA vs COL COL
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Kyle Stowers
Kyle Stowers
2026-09-20 — MIA MIA vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-20 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-20 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-20 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
331-1432 (19%)
ELITE
57-256 (18%)
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✓ HOME RUN!
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs TOR TOR vs Shane Bieber pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz BOMB
ATH vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell platoon
HR prob
27%
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs CLE CLE vs Logan Allen temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Ketel Marte
KM
AZ AZ vs STL STL vs Dustin May pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs STL STL vs Dustin May pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Bryce Harper
BH
PHI PHI vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea temp pitcher_form
HR prob
25%
✗ No HR
Vinnie Pasquantino
VP
KC KC vs SD SD vs Griffin Canning temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs SD SD vs Griffin Canning temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Salvador Perez
SP
KC KC vs SD SD vs Griffin Canning temp
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Christian Yelich
CY
MIL MIL vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Gary Sánchez
GS
MIL MIL vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer
HR prob
24%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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