LOCK LABS — Power Plays

BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 164-73 (69.2%) · B 1705-896 (65.6%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record

211-398 35%

2+ TB Record

265-344 44%

Graded

609 picks L1

← PREV 2026-07-20 NEXT →

Last scored 04:00 PM ET

Brandon Lowe LOCK

PIT vs NYY

NYY vs Ryan Weathers 7:05 PM ET park temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Elite power numbers from Lowe: .366 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Ryan Weathers's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.06x and 81°F game-time temp.

✗ No XBH 0 TB

Wilyer Abreu LOCK

BOS vs BAL

BAL vs Shane Baz 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Shane Baz has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 79°F game-time temp.

✓ XBH 3 TB

CJ Abrams LOCK

WSH vs COL

COL vs Kyle Freeland 8:40 PM ET park confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Kyle Freeland's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.19x.

✓ HR 4 TB

Recent Results (last 20 graded)

✗

CJ Abrams

2026-07-24 — WSH

WSH vs

No XBH

2 TB

✗

Corbin Carroll

2026-07-24 —

AZ vs

WSH

No XBH

1 TB

✗

Juan Soto

2026-07-24 — NYM

NYM vs

LAD

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Luis García Jr.

2026-07-24 — WSH

WSH vs

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Andy Pages

2026-07-24 — LAD

LAD vs

NYM

3 TB

✓

Freddie Freeman

2026-07-24 — LAD

LAD vs

NYM

4 TB

✓

Kyle Schwarber

2026-07-24 — PHI

PHI vs

NYY

2 TB

✓

Jared Young

2026-07-24 — NYM

NYM vs

LAD

3 TB

✗

Chase DeLauter

2026-07-23 — CLE

CLE vs

MIN

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Drake Baldwin

2026-07-23 — ATL

ATL vs

4 TB

✗

Matt Olson

2026-07-23 — ATL

ATL vs

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Corbin Carroll

2026-07-23 —

AZ vs

STL

3 TB

✗

Chase DeLauter

2026-07-22 — CLE

CLE vs

MIN

No XBH

1 TB

✗

Andy Pages

2026-07-22 — LAD

LAD vs

PHI

No XBH

1 TB

✓

Zach Neto

2026-07-22 — LAA

LAA vs

STL

2 TB

✓

Jackson Merrill

2026-07-22 —

SD vs

ATL

5 TB

✗

Drake Baldwin

2026-07-21 — ATL

ATL vs

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Matt Olson

2026-07-21 — ATL

ATL vs

No XBH

1 TB

✓

Carter Jensen

2026-07-21 —

KC vs

4 TB

✗

Cole Young

2026-07-21 — SEA

SEA vs

CIN

No XBH

0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB

246-989 (20%)

ELITE

40-192 (17%)

Taylor Ward BOMB

BAL vs BOS

BOS vs Payton Tolle temp pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✗ No HR

Pete Alonso BOMB

BAL vs BOS

BOS vs Payton Tolle temp pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✗ No HR

Kerry Carpenter BOMB

DET vs CHC

CHC vs Jameson Taillon pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

✗ No HR

Riley Greene BOMB

DET vs CHC

CHC vs Jameson Taillon pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

✓ HOME RUN!

Tyler O'Neill BOMB

BAL vs BOS

BOS vs Payton Tolle temp pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

✗ No HR

Rafael Devers BOMB

SF vs

KC vs Michael Wacha temp pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

✗ No HR

Willy Adames BOMB

SF vs

KC vs Michael Wacha temp pitcher_form

HR prob

25%

✓ HOME RUN!

How picks are filtered

2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.

HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.

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